The Japanese Grand Prix this weekend looks slightly different from what some would have expected at the start of the season, not least for Liam Lawson.
After only two races in the Red Bull cockpit, the Kiwi driver has been demoted to the junior Racing Bulls team. Granted, the two races that Lawson has run so far in 2025 were shambolic in terms of performance. Still, there will be those who feel that he was hard done by.
After all, if he doesn’t one day return to that seat, he will have had the shortest Red Bull career of any driver who has ever raced for the team. It was a brutal decision, exactly because of his limited time behind the wheel. However, it was also not entirely unexpected.
Red Bull has access to far more data and telemetry than we could ever dream of. They would know exactly where, why, and how Lawson struggled. Whatever they saw in that data was enough to give him the boot.
Perhaps there were also other factors at play. Lawson has never come across as well as, say, Alex Albon does. Amid his aggressive moves against Checo Perez in 2024, when he was gunning for the Mexican’s seat, he categorically stated that a driver who says a car is difficult to drive should simply adapt and not make excuses. Given his subsequent performances—or lack thereof—this hasn’t aged too well. It’s a hefty crash back down to earth for Lawson, but he’ll undoubtedly be determined to silence the critics as he gets behind the wheel of the Racing Bull.
In his place is Japanese driver Yuki Tsunoda. There is, rightly, much fear that he too will fail in the second Red Bull seat. Yet he handled Red Bull overlooking him for Lawson with great class, and now that he can step into that very same seat, he may well surprise a few people. There’s nothing to suggest that he’s going to beat Max Verstappen—that is probably a bridge too far. But Tsunoda has developed a bit of steeliness over the last few seasons that might stand him in good stead this weekend.
And where better to show your mettle than the gloriously challenging Suzuka circuit? It’s an old-school masterpiece that demands the utmost from both driver and machine. The combination of high-speed esses and the blindingly fast Degner curves are just some of the highlights of a circuit steeped as much in peril as it is in glory. Devoid of massive runoff areas, the Suzuka circuit is an exercise in precision that punishes even the smallest of mistakes. It’s a masterpiece begging to be mastered by the greats.
It’s also a place where Max Verstappen has performed brilliantly in the past. And though he may not have the car at his disposal to dominate proceedings, it’s best not to count him completely out of the equation. It’s a given that McLaren arrives at the track as one of the favourites, but it’s not so straightforward a prediction as to which of Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri will have the edge. It’s the perfect bit of distraction for others to take advantage of if they are anywhere near the Papaya McLaren on Sunday.
The brilliance of Formula 1 in 2025 is that we go into nearly every race weekend completely in the dark as to who will step onto the top step of the podium. Sure, some are expected to feature at the sharp end, but it certainly isn’t guaranteed to be straightforward.
