Property experts have warned of a steady rise in interest rates which will affect homeowners bond commitments in the next few years.
According to Paul Stevens, CEO of Just Property, industry predictions suggest three to four hikes in 2022 “possibly as high as 5%”, with the repo rate expected to return to its pre-pandemic (end-2019) level of 6,50% by the close of 2024.
“Interest rates are expected to rise gradually to 2024, so prospective bondholders should look at what they can afford beyond the current interest rates.”
Stevens and Carl Coetzee, CEO of BetterBond, look at some of the frequently asked questions from bondholders and prospective homeowners.
Should you fix your rate now?
“Only once your bond has been registered can you apply for a fixed interest rate and there is a strict time limit attached before the offer lapses,” says Coetzee.
“While market conditions are always a useful guide, the most important factor when deciding on whether to fix the interest rate or not should be affordability.”
Meanwhile Stevens says if you are applying for a bond, comparing fixed vs variable interest rate options is a worthwhile exercise.
“Right now, a fixed interest rate will almost certainly be higher than a variable rate, so get indicative proposals from the lending institutions.”
Coetzee agrees: “Generally, a fixed interest rate is higher than a variable rate as it poses more of a risk to the bank. It is only negotiated at the time of bond registration and the rate offered is dependent on the going rate at that specific time.”
How can buyers work out the impact on payment plans?
“A rise in the prime lending rate will have an impact on your monthly bond payments, but the increases that have been forecast by the South African Reserve Bank for the next three years are gradual and the prime lending rate should only hit double digits in 2024. This means that there is still time to make the most of the accommodative lending environment,” says Coetzee.
Home loan holders are advised to use a repayment calculator to see how their payments are likely to change and to prepare for increases.
“Bond repayment calculators can help you practically understand what increases in interest rates will have on your affordability,” adds Coetzee.
What is the outlook for the year?
Property data suggests that buyer activity remains strong, despite the gradual rate increase. The upward shift in rates is not unexpected, given that it has been more than a year of record-low interest rates.
“This lengthy period of low interest rates has done well to stabilise the housing property market. While buyer activity may have started to moderate, it is still above pre-pandemic levels.
“Deeds office registrations increased by a significant 11,47% for the six months ending in November 2021, up from the 8,43% growth recorded for the same period in 2020. Similarly, BetterBond’s home loan registrations for the six months ending in December last year increased by 9,85%,” adds Coetzee.
House price growth appears to have flattened, with FNB expecting house prices to average between 3% and 4% in 2022. But what is encouraging is that the time properties are staying on the market – a good indicator of the state of the property sector – has shortened from eight weeks and six days to seven weeks and six days, well below the global average of 14 weeks and one day reported after the global financial crisis of 2019.
“The outcome of holding the repo rate steady for so long is that we are dealing with a very different housing market from the one that slumped into 2009 when the property boom bubble burst,” says Coetzee.
Should pre-approved buyers get re-approved?
Stevens and Coetzee both agree that obtaining pre-approval if you are thinking of applying for a bond is a good idea.
“It not only gives you a good idea of what you can afford, based on your household expenses, available deposit etc, but it also greatly improves your chances of bond approval when you do find your ideal home.”
However, if you received a bond pre-approval before the recent repo rate increase, you should reapply as the terms of pre-approval are likely to have changed.
“For example, you might have received pre-approved finance at a rate linked to the previous prime lending rate,” says Stevens.
“Remember that your pre-approval certificate is only valid for 90 days from issue, irrespective of changes in the interest rate,” Coetzee added.
Although pre-approval does not mean that the bank has approved a bond application, it does give an indication of what the big banks will be willing to offer you based on your affordability.
Should I be looking at a larger deposit?
The duo adds that paying a larger deposit, if you have the financial means to do so, will help buffer future rate increases.
“Being able to offer some form of deposit will always positively affect your monthly bond repayments, irrespective of the current interest rate,” says Coetzee.
“Banks certainly look more favourably at an applicant who appears to be a lower lending risk.”
Steven notes that there is more to paying off a bond than the interest rate.
“You can also mitigate the risk of an increase in rates by making extra bond repayments every month, thereby reducing the loan amount as quickly as possible and reducing the term of the loan too.”
Coetzee agrees: “Paying a bit more into your bond now, when the interest rate is still comparatively low, will reduce your monthly repayments and serve as a buffer when interest rates increase.”
Stevens concludes that most property analysts predict property prices are likely to increase along with interest rates.
“The best saving you can probably make is to buy now, if you’ve been considering it. Get pre-approved, link up with an excellent property professional, put down at least a 10% deposit, and use a good bond repayment calculator to weigh up the pros and cons of fixing the interest rate.”
